There is a value, an unknown, a number that is often estimated during a pandemic, R0. It is defined as “the average number of secondary infections caused by a single infections individual introduced into a completely susceptible population.” (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2020.04.012). For COVID-19 the R0 is estimated to be about 4.
Recently, the United States saw an attempted insurrection, a coup during an uncontrolled pandemic. We have been asked to wear masks, socially distance and stay home in an attempt to stop the spread of COVID-19. But during the insurrection at the US Capital this month, most were not wearing masks, yelled in people’s face spraying droplets and in all likelihood do not believe COVID-19 is real. So, there will no socially distancing, no isolating and no testing when they return home, thereby putting their housemates, family and friends at risk of infection. Thousands of people are dying from COVID-19 every day and we can expect this riot to lead to hundreds of infections, with the sad reality that some will not survive this infection. Unfortunately, the death toll from this riot may not stop at 5, expect more.
Some of the insurgents may eventually get tested once symptoms hit, but by that time it may be too late and the virus has spread to others, even to some that were home during the riot. I sincerely hope that anyone infected with Covid-19 survives the disease but based on stats and with over 3,000 people dying per day, it is scary to think about.
For Covid-19 the average R0 value is about 4: therefore, for that one COVID-19 infected insurrectionist, 4 people will become infected; and those 4 secondarily infected people will infect 4 people each and so on. While this is a simplification of how the R0 value is calculated, you get the idea, COVID-19 is infectious and without precautions we have an uncontrolled pandemic.
Wear a mask, wash your hands, socially distance and stay home when possible, stay safe.
